ʻO ka wānana kumukūʻai lithium: E mālama anei ke kumukūʻai i kāna bipi?.
Ua emi nā kumukūʻai lithium i nā pule i hala aku nei ʻoiai ke hoʻomau nei ka nele o ka lako a me ke kūʻai ʻana i nā kaʻa uila honua.
ʻO nā kumukūʻai o kēlā me kēia pule no ka lithium hydroxide (ʻo ka liʻiliʻi o 56.5% LiOH2O pākaukau) he $ 75,000 no ka tonne ($ 75 a kilogram) kumu kūʻai, inikua a me ka ukana (CIF) ma 7 Iulai, iho mai $ 81,500 ma 7 Mei, e like me ka London Metal. Exchange (LME) a me ka ʻoihana hōʻike kumukūʻai ʻo Fastmarkets.
Ua emi nā kumukūʻai lithium carbonate ma Kina i CNY475,500/tonne ($ 70,905.61) i ka hopena o Iune, mai kahi kiʻekiʻe o CNY500,000 i Malaki, e like me ka mea hoʻolako ʻikepili waiwai ʻo Trading Economics.
Eia nō naʻe, ʻoi aku ka pālua o nā kumukūʻai o ka lithium carbonate a me ka lithium hydroxide - nā mea maka no ka hana ʻana i nā pā uila kaʻa uila (EV) - e pālua ʻia mai nā kumukūʻai i ka hoʻomaka o Ianuali.
He pōkole pōkole wale nō ka downtrend?Ma kēia ʻatikala e nānā mākou i nā nūhou mākeke hou loa a me ka ʻikepili hoʻolako-koi e hoʻohālikelike i nā wānana kumukūʻai lithium.
ʻO ka nānā ʻana o ka mākeke lithium
ʻAʻole loaʻa i ka Lithium kahi mākeke no ka wā e hiki mai ana no ka mea he mākeke metala liʻiliʻi ia e pili ana i ka nui o ke kālepa.Eia nō naʻe, loaʻa i ka mākeke derivatives CME Group ka lithium hydroxide futures, e hoʻohana ana i ka loiloi kumukūʻai lithium hydroxide i paʻi ʻia e Fastmarkets.
I ka makahiki 2019, ua hoʻokumu ka LME i ka hui pū ʻana me Fastmarkets i kahi kumukūʻai kuhikuhi e pili ana i ka papa kuhikuhi kālepa wahi kino i kēlā me kēia pule ma kahi kumu CIF China, Iapana a me Korea.
ʻO Kina, Iapana a me Korea nā mākeke nui loa ʻekolu no ka lithium holo moana.ʻO ke kumukūʻai wahi lithium i kēlā mau ʻāina i manaʻo ʻia ʻo ia ka pae ʻoihana no ka lithium grade battery.
Wahi a ka ʻikepili mōʻaukala, hāʻule nā kumukūʻai lithium ma waena o 2018 a 2020 ma muli o ka hoʻolako ʻana i ka glut e like me nā miners, e like me Pilbara Minerals a me Altura Mining, hoʻonui i ka hana.
Ua hāʻule ke kumu kūʻai o ka lithium hydroxide i $9 i kilokani ma 30 Dekemaba 2020, mai $20.5/kg ma 4 Ianuali 2018. Ua kūʻai ʻia ka lithium carbonate ma $6.75/kg ma 30 Dekemaba 2020, mai ka $19.25 ma 4 Ianuali 2018.
Hoʻomaka ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai i ka hoʻomaka ʻana o 2021 ma muli o ka ulu ikaika ʻana o ka EV ma muli o ka hoʻokele waiwai o ka honua mai nā hopena o ka maʻi maʻi Covid-19.Ua piʻi aʻe ke kumukūʻai lithium carbonate a hiki i kēia lā mai $ 6.75 / kg i ka hoʻomaka ʻana o Ianuali 2021, aʻo ka lithium hydroxide ua hoʻonui ʻia ma mua o ʻehiku mau manawa mai $9.
I kaʻO ka Global EV Outlook 2022i paʻi ʻia ma Mei, International Energy Agency (IEA)
Ua hōʻike ʻia ke kūʻai aku ʻana o nā EV i pālua i 2021 mai ka makahiki i hala i kahi moʻolelo hou o 6.6m mau ʻāpana.ʻO ka huina o nā kaʻa uila ma nā alanui a puni ka 16.5m, ua hoʻonui ʻia mai ka nui ma 2018.
I ka hapaha mua o kēia makahiki, ua kūʻai ʻia aku ka 2 miliona mau kaʻa EV, ʻoi aku ka 75% makahiki-ma-makahiki (YOY).
Eia nō naʻe, ua emi nā kumukūʻai lithium carbonate ma ka mākeke ʻAsia-Pākīpika i ka lua o ka lua ma muli o ka puka hou ʻana o Covid-19 ma Kina, ka mea i koi ai i ke aupuni e hoʻokau i nā laka, ua hoʻopilikia i ke kaulahao lako lako.
Wahi a ka mākeke kemika a me ka ʻike kumu kūʻai, ʻo Chemanalyst, ua helu ʻia ke kumukūʻai lithium carbonate ma $ 72,155 / tonne a i ʻole $ 72.15 / kg i ka lua o ka hapaha i pau ʻo Iune 2022, iho mai $ 74,750/tonne i ka hapaha mua i pau i Malaki.
Ua kākau ka hui:
Ua hōʻemi kekahi mau hale kaʻa uila i kā lākou huahana, a ua nui nā pūnaewele i hoʻōki i kā lākou hana ʻana ma muli o ka lawa ʻole o nā ʻāpana kaʻa pono.
"ʻO ka hoʻomohala holoʻokoʻa ma muli o COVID, i hui pū ʻia me ka noiʻi ʻana o nā luna Kina e pili ana i ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai o Lithium, ke hoʻohālikelike nei i ka hoʻololi mau ʻana i kahi ʻoihana ʻōmaʻomaʻo,"
ʻO ke kumukūʻai lithium hydroxide ma Asia-Pacific, akā, ua piʻi ka $ 73,190 / tonne i ka lua o ka hapaha, mai $ 68,900 / tonne i ka hapaha mua, wahi a Chemanalyst.
Hōʻike ka manaʻo hoʻolako-koi i ka mākeke paʻa
I Malaki, ua wānana ke aupuni Australia e hiki ke piʻi ka noi honua no ka lithium i 636,000 tonnes o lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) ma 2022, mai 526,000 tonnes i 2021. Manaʻo ʻia ka noi e ʻoi aku ma mua o ka pālua i ka 1.5 miliona tonnes e 2027 e like me ka hoʻohana ʻana o EV honua. ke piʻi mau nei.
Ua manaʻo ʻo ia e hoʻonui liʻiliʻi ka puka lithium honua ma mua o ka noi i 650,000 tonnes LCE i 2022 a me 1.47 miliona tonnes i 2027.
ʻO ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka puka lithium, akā naʻe, ʻaʻole hiki ke hoʻokō i ka koi mai nā mea hana pākaukau.
Wahi a ka hui noiʻi ʻo Wood Mackenzie i Malaki e hiki ke piʻi ka nui o ka pākaukau lithium-ion o ka honua ma mua o ʻelima mau manawa i 5,500 gigawatt-hola (GWh) ma 2030 mai 2021 e pane i nā hoʻolālā hoʻonui nui EV.
Jiayue Zheng, ua ʻōlelo nā mea loiloi o Wood Mackenzie:
"ʻO ka mākeke kaʻa uila (EV) kahi kokoke i 80% o ka koi ʻana o ka pā lithium-ion."
"Ke kākoʻo nei nā kumukūʻai aila kiʻekiʻe i nā mākeke e hoʻopuka i nā kulekele kaʻa kaʻa e hoʻokuʻu ʻole ʻia, e koi ana i ke koi no ka pākaukau lithium-ion i skyrocket a ʻoi aku ma mua o 3,000 GWh e 2030."
"Ua ʻike mua ka mākeke pākaukau lithium-ion i nā hemahema i ka makahiki i hala ma muli o ka ulu ʻana o ka mākeke EV a me ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai maka.Ma lalo o kā mākou hiʻohiʻona kumu, manaʻo mākou ʻaʻole e hoʻokō ka lako pākaukau i ka noi a hiki i 2023.
"Ua ʻike mua ka mākeke pākaukau lithium-ion i nā hemahema i ka makahiki i hala ma muli o ka ulu ʻana o ka mākeke EV a me ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai maka.Ma lalo o kā mākou hiʻohiʻona kumu, manaʻo mākou ʻaʻole e hoʻokō ka lako pākaukau i ka noi a hiki i 2023.
"Ke manaʻoʻiʻo nei mākou ʻo kēia ka nānā ʻana i ka lithium ma muli o ka hoʻomohala ʻana o ka ʻoihana mining lithium i hoʻohālikelike ʻia me ka nickel," i kākau ai ka firm i ka noiʻi.
"Ke manaʻo nei mākou e kuleana nā EV ma luna o 80.0% o ka noi lithium honua e 2030 i hoʻohālikelike ʻia me 19.3% wale nō o ka lako nickel honua ma 2030."
ʻO ka wānana kumukūʻai lithium: nā wānana a nā mea kākau
ʻO Fitch Solutions i kāna wānana kumukūʻai lithium no 2022 i manaʻo ʻia ke kumu kūʻai o ka lithium carbonate ma Kina i ka awelika $21,000 no ka tonne i kēia makahiki, e hōʻemi ana i ka awelika $ 19,000 no ka tonne i 2023.
Nicholas Trickett, mea kālaihana metala a me ka mining ma Fitch Solutions i kākau iā Capital.com, i ʻōlelo ʻia:
"Ke manaʻo nei mākou i ka emi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai i ka makahiki e hiki mai ana i ka hoʻomaka ʻana o nā mines hou i ka 2022 a me 2023, hoʻomau nā kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe e hoʻopau i kekahi koi no ka mea ke kūʻai ʻia nei nā mea kūʻai mai ke kūʻai ʻana i nā kaʻa uila (ke kumu kumu o ka ulu koi), a ʻoi aku ka nui o nā mea kūʻai aku. e hoʻopaʻa i nā kuʻikahi o ka wā lōʻihi me nā miners.
Aia ka paʻa i ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka wānana kumukūʻai lithium i hāʻawi ʻia i nā kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe o kēia manawa a me nā loli i ka pōʻaiapili waiwai, wahi a Trickett.
Ua wānana ʻo Fitch Solutions i ka hoʻonui ʻana o ka lithium carbonate honua e 219kilotonnes (kt) ma waena o 2022 a me 2023 a me kahi piʻi hou o 194.4 kt ma waena o 2023 a me 2024, wahi a Trickett.
Ma kahi wānana kumukūʻai lithium no 2022 mai ka mea hoʻolako ʻikepili waiwai ʻo Trading Economics i manaʻo ʻia ka lithium carbonate ma Kina e kālepa ma CNY482,204.55/tonne ma ka hopena Q3 2022 a me CNY502,888.80 i 12 mau mahina.
Ma muli o ka volatility a me ka maopopo ʻole i ka hoʻolako a me ka noi, hiki i nā mea loiloi ke hāʻawi wale i nā wānana pōkole.ʻAʻole lākou i hāʻawi i kahi wānana kumukūʻai lithium no 2025 a i ʻole kahi wānana kumukūʻai lithium no 2030.
I ka nana ana ilokolithiumnā wānana kumukūʻai, e hoʻomanaʻo i nā wānana a ka poʻe loiloi hiki ke hewa.Inā makemake ʻoe e hoʻokomo i ka lithium, pono ʻoe e hana mua i kāu noiʻi ponoʻī.
Pono e kau ʻia kāu hoʻoholo hoʻopukapuka ma kou ʻano i ka pilikia, kou ʻike ma kēia mākeke, ka hoʻolaha ʻana o kāu kōpili a me kou ʻoluʻolu e pili ana i ka nalowale kālā.'A'ole ho'i e ho'okomo kālā ma mua o kou hiki ke lilo.
Ka manawa hoʻouna: Sep-17-2022